Work Package Leader - Grzegorz W. Kolodko, KU_TIGER
Major transformations will take place in the development of Europe up to 2030 as far as the political enonomy and politics are concerned. Cultural, social, economic, environmental and economic changes during this period will be strongly conditioned by the political backgrounds prevailing in countries and regions.
Inequalities, poverty and social exclusion in large urbanised areas may well lead to political turmoil and instability. All these must be taken into account in policy-making processes. It can impact accordingly internal policies and external policies. Levels of development and demographic situations matter. Risks of conflicts exist that could degenerate. Openess to trade, to financial cross-border transactions could be hampered. Willingness to pursue regional integration processes where they occur could be slowed down or reversed. Special attention is to be given to the political economy of Europe integration and competition with other parts of the world. Political economy will help to assess the feasibility of various trajectories. It will also help to see how ideologies channel or block transformations in our societies. These desired trajectories, as well as the ways of avoiding detours and dead-ends, will be studied looking at three elements: the values, the institutions, and the policies, and considering how they can evolve.
Armed conflicts that have affected diverse countries and regions in the past decades are also to remain part of the scene in the decade to come. They obviously set limits on the designing of sound international governance and thus have to be taken into account.